What number to trust

What to trust first

1. Net profit.
2. Blended MER.
3. New-customer metrics.
4. Platform-reported numbers, read directionally.

I call it ad investment instead of spend, because it changes how the room talks about the budget. Then I check four things against each other: what the platform claims, what brand search did, what a geo or holdout test showed and what the whole business did.

I wrote a version of this in 2012, before the current tools existed. Google was already training advertisers to trust the report in front of them. Pavlov's dogs is that piece. In 2015 I said Smart Goals were a black box dressed up as measurement. That post is still here.

A directional answer beats a precise lie.

How I use this with clients

I use this on a Live Audit Call, and again in a Year in Review when we rebuild what we measure.

• $396K+ spend, $42K revenue
• YouTube, where brand search shows whether the brand grew
• Performance branding

Questions

Can I run the budget off the ad platform number?

A platform number is directional, not absolute. I check it against brand search, a geo or holdout test, and blended MER before I bet the budget on it.

What number do you judge the work by?

Marketing efficiency ratio. Dollars out, dollars in, across the business. A single-channel ROAS doesn't tell you if the business made money.

Do you replace our analytics vendor?

No. I read what you already have and tell you which decision it can actually support.